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Ligue 1

Auxerre - Nice

09/12/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Auxerre
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Nice
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
AUXNIC

Auxerre

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (1.6 vs 1 season average)
+0.18
Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Naouirou Ahamada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 40% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Nice

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.71
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.48
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.17
Sofiane Diop on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Melvin Bard  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 41% of Auxerre's goal threat is available, with Sinaly Diomandé, Naouirou Ahamada, and Romain Faivre missing
  • Only 46% of Nice's goal threat is available, with Sofiane Diop and Melvin Bard not in the lineup
  • Nice averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Nice concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Nice's goal production is stalling at 0.5 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Auxerre conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match in recent games
Overview

Auxerre (18th place, 0 points) host Nice (15th place, 2 points) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Ligue 1 match on September 12, 2026, 8:45 PM

The mathematical model calculates a 45% home win probability and 1.46 expected goals for Auxerre

Form

Auxerre have lost their last three league matches

Form across all competitions: WDLLL

Nice are also still waiting for their first league win of the season

Form across all competitions: LLDLD

Statistics

Auxerre scored an average of 1.00 goal and conceded 1.29 goals per match over 34 games

Nice scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.94 goals per away match

Auxerre's home matches have averaged 2.8 goals per game

Head-to-Head

A balanced history with 2 home wins for Auxerre, 1 away win for Nice, and 1 draw

The last head-to-head match on May 10, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Auxerre

A total of 12 goals were scored in the last 4 meetings, shared equally between the teams (6-6)

Key Players

Danny Namaso (3 goals, 3 assists, 6.78 rating) is in stable form

Kévin Danois (3 goals, 1 assist, 7.08 rating) performs well in midfield

Lamine Sy (1 goal in the last 5 matches) shows a declining form trend

Jonathan Clauss (1 goal, 6 assists, 7.12 rating) remains a key performer

Elye Wahi (5 goals, 1 assist, 6.67 rating) remains stable in attack

Djibril Coulibaly (2 appearances, 6.58 rating) anchors the defensive midfield

Goalkeepers

Mamadou Diop starts in goal for Auxerre (averaging 6.47 in home matches)

Nice field Yehvann Diouf, who has a declining form trend (6.41 over the last 5 matches)

Influences

Home advantage for Auxerre with 7 clean sheets in their own stadium

The match will be played on natural grass at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Nice conceded an average of nearly two goals (1.94) per away game this season

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