Match report →
Auxerre – Nice1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Auxerre
1.46
Total xG
2.49
Nice
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Auxerre | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Naouirou Ahamada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| Sofiane Diop on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Melvin Bard not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 41% of Auxerre's goal threat is available, with Sinaly Diomandé, Naouirou Ahamada, and Romain Faivre missing
- Only 46% of Nice's goal threat is available, with Sofiane Diop and Melvin Bard not in the lineup
- Nice averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Nice concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
- Nice's goal production is stalling at 0.5 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
- Auxerre conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Auxerre45%
Draw30%
Nice25%
Double chance
Auxerre or draw75%
Nice or draw55%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
Auxerre 3-4-3 · Nice 3-4-2-1
Auxerre
- 23 M. Diop
- 15 C. Makosso
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 28 A. Witsel
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Substitutes
- 35 E. Legros
- 20 S. Diomande
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 1 P. Nardi
- 21 R. Faivre
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 21 I. Jansson
- 2 A. Abdi
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 10 S. Diop
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 38 A. Camara
- 41 D. Morana
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