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Ligue 1

Rennes - Olympique Marseille

09/11/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Rennes
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Olympique Marseille
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RENOM

Rennes

Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.03
Mousa Tamari on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Quentin Merlin on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Sebastian Szymanski on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Olympique Marseille

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rennes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Rennes: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Rennes: 67% of all goals in the first half (16 of 24, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Olympique Marseille: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

30%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: Rennes is undefeated (Form: DWDWW) while Marseille is struggling in a crisis (Form: LLWLL)
  • Offensive trends: Rennes is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average, while Marseille's goal production has stalled (1.6 goals)
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Rennes concedes only 1.00 goals at home, whereas Marseille allows an average of 2.08 goals in away matches
Risk Factors
  • Rennes must play without Mousa Tamari, Quentin Merlin, Sebastian Szymanski, and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
  • Marseille historically dominated 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches
  • Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match
Overview

Rennes (5th place, 7 points) host Olympique Marseille (11th place, 3 points) at Roazhon Park

Ligue 1 match on September 11, 2026, 8:45 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts Rennes as the favorite with a 38% probability

Form

Rennes started strong with a form of DWDWW, winning their last match against Angers SCO

Olympique Marseille is in a crisis with a form of LLWLL, losing their last game against Paris

The home side secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches

Statistics

Rennes scored an average of 1.74 goals per game this season while conceding 1.47 goals

At home, Rennes concedes an average of only 1.00 goals per match

Marseille averages 1.85 goals per season, but struggles away with an average of 2.08 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In the last four head-to-head matches, Marseille won three times and Rennes once

None of these matches ended in a draw

The last meeting on May 17, 2026, was won 3-1 by Marseille at home

Key Players

Estéban Lepaul has already scored 20 goals this season and shows a rising form trend

Valentin Rongier contributed 2 goals and 5 assists, also displaying positive form

For the visitors, Amine Gouiri stands out with 8 goals this season and stable form

Goalkeepers

Brice Samba kept goal 32 times for Rennes this season, recording 10 clean sheets

Jeffrey de Lange has made 5 appearances so far for Marseille

Influences

Roazhon Park has proven to be a high-scoring venue, averaging 3.6 goals over the last five games

In all five of these matches, both teams scored and more than 2.5 goals were scored

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