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Rennes – Olympique Marseille1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rennes
1.36
Total xG
2.61
Olympique Marseille
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rennes | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Mousa Tamari on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Quentin Merlin on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Szymanski on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Rennes is undefeated (Form: DWDWW) while Marseille is struggling in a crisis (Form: LLWLL)
- Offensive trends: Rennes is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average, while Marseille's goal production has stalled (1.6 goals)
- Home strength vs away weakness: Rennes concedes only 1.00 goals at home, whereas Marseille allows an average of 2.08 goals in away matches
Risks
- Rennes must play without Mousa Tamari, Quentin Merlin, Sebastian Szymanski, and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- Marseille historically dominated 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches
- Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Rennes38%
Draw30%
Olympique Marseille33%
Double chance
Rennes or draw67%
Olympique Marseille or draw62%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Rennes: 67% of all goals in the first half (16 of 24, last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Rennes 4-1-4-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-1-4-1
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 18 M. Nagida
- 21 V. Rongier
- 10 L. Blas
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 45 M. Camara
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 9 E. Lepaul
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 7 A. Gomes
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 17 S. Szymański
- 22 B. Dia
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 42 N. Kamissoko
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