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Ligue 1

LOSC Lille - Troyes

09/13/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
LOSC Lille
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Troyes
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
LLTRO

LOSC Lille

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
Olivier Giroud on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Ethan Mbappé on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Benjamin André on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 61% available)

Troyes

Defensive weakness (3.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+2.11
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Lille averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Troyes defense conceding 2.33 goals on average
  • Efficiency boost: Lille currently score more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a home win for Lille with a probability of 50%
Risk Factors
  • Olivier Giroud, Ethan MbappĂ©, and Benjamin AndrĂ© are missing, with only 61% of goal threat available
  • Visitors' low shot count: Troyes averaged only 3.3 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability on away player form
Overview

Lille (5th place, 7 points) host Troyes (10th place, 4 points) at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Ligue 1 match on September 13, 2026, 3:00 PM

The home side enter as favorites

Form

Lille show a form of WWDWL with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their most recent match ended in a defeat

Troyes have a form of DWL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lille score an average of 1.53 goals and concede 1.09 per season

At home Lille average 1.5 goals scored per match

Troyes score an average of 1.33 goals while conceding 2.33

Lille currently score more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5)

Key Players

HĂĄkon Arnar Haraldsson shines in midfield with 8 goals and a season rating of 7.07

Defender Romain Perraud contributed 3 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.04

Nabil Bentaleb anchors the midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists, rated 6.89

Goalkeepers

Berke Özer plays in goal for Lille and has achieved 13 clean sheets this season

Patrick Beach starts in goal for Troyes, whose defense has recorded 1 clean sheet

Influences

The game is played on natural grass at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Stadium statistics show a high average of 3.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of matches at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille average 1.5 goals scored in their home stadium

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