Match report →
LOSC Lille – Troyes2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.66
Total xG
2.71
Troyes
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (3.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +2.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Olivier Giroud on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ethan Mbappé on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Benjamin André on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Lille averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Troyes defense conceding 2.33 goals on average
- Efficiency boost: Lille currently score more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a home win for Lille with a probability of 50%
Risks
- Olivier Giroud, Ethan Mbappé, and Benjamin André are missing, with only 61% of goal threat available
- Visitors' low shot count: Troyes averaged only 3.3 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability on away player form
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille50%
Draw27%
Troyes22%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw78%
Troyes or draw50%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1 · Troyes 4-2-3-1
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 22 T. Santos Carvalho
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 19 B. Onal
- 18 A. Ueda
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 8 M. Diop
- 29 K. Dermane
- 7 K. Diawara
- 17 A. Mille
- 22 H. Picard
- 9 J. Le Douaron
Substitutes
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 21 B. André
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
- 11 I. Gomis
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 23 T. NKada
- 20 R. Ripart
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 39 Y. Kone
- 36 I. Soukouna
- 41 E. Carneiro
- 34 L. Simakha
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