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Ligue 1

Brest - Paris Saint Germain

09/13/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Brest
1.0
Total xG
2.6
Paris Saint Germain
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
BREPSG

Brest

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Paris Saint Germain

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Désiré Doué on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
FabiĂĄn Ruiz on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)

  • 2
    Brest: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

28%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical away win predicted at 51% probability with 1.61 expected goals
  • Historical dominance with 5 wins in 5 meetings and a 19:2 goal difference for Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain dominated possession recently, averaging 71.4% and 7.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Paris Saint Germain has only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to 8 days for Brest
  • Romain Del Castillo is missing for Brest, leaving only 83% of the regular starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive instability for Brest, conceding an average of 2.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.66
Overview

Brest hosts Paris Saint Germain at Stade Francis-Le Ble

Ligue 1 fixture on September 13, 2026, 8:45 PM

Brest sits in 7th place with 5 points, while Paris Saint Germain occupies 14th with 2 points

Form

Brest holds a form record of LLDDW after winning their last match

Paris Saint Germain features a form of DDDLW, also coming off a victory

Key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Brest scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 1.05 at home

Paris Saint Germain averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded away

Venue historical average stands at 4.4 goals per match with 100% BTTS rate

Head-to-Head

There are 5 head-to-head matches recorded

Paris Saint Germain won all 5 encounters with a total goal difference of 19:2

Their last meeting finished in a 0:1 victory for Paris Saint Germain

Key Players

Ludovic Ajorque is a key contributor for Brest with 8 goals and 9 assists

Ousmane Dembélé leads Paris Saint Germain with 10 goals and 7 assists

Vitinha commands the midfield with 7 assists and a 7.51 average rating

Goalkeepers

Egil Selvik is in goal for Brest

Matvey Safonov has guarded the net for Paris Saint Germain over the last 5 matches

Brest kept 9 clean sheets this season, while Paris Saint Germain recorded 18

Influences

Home advantage for Brest is backed by a solid 1.05 goals conceded average at home

Historic average at Stade Francis-Le Ble highlights high-scoring matches with 4.4 goals per game

The match takes place on a grass pitch

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