Match report →
Brest – Paris Saint Germain0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Brest
0.96
Total xG
2.57
Paris Saint Germain
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brest | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Désiré Doué on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Fabián Ruiz on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical away win predicted at 51% probability with 1.61 expected goals
- Historical dominance with 5 wins in 5 meetings and a 19:2 goal difference for Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain dominated possession recently, averaging 71.4% and 7.4 shots on target
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Paris Saint Germain has only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to 8 days for Brest
- Romain Del Castillo is missing for Brest, leaving only 83% of the regular starting lineup strength available
- Defensive instability for Brest, conceding an average of 2.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.66
All probabilities
Result
Brest21%
Draw28%
Paris Saint Germain51%
Double chance
Brest or draw49%
Paris Saint Germain or draw79%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)
- Brest: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Brest 4-2-3-1 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 71 R. Le Guen
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 10 G. Versini
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 5 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 25 N. Mendes
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 9 F. Torres García
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitutes
- 29 L. Tousart
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 32 M. Lainé
- 39 D. N´Guessan
- 33 E. Monchatre
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 14 D. Doue
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 12 L. Digne
- 22 M. Godts
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