Premier League
Sunderland - Fulham
02/22/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
11%1:0
11%1:2
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
33%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Sunderland's home advantage: The extremely strong home defense (only 0.5 goals conceded per game) meets a very weak away defense from Fulham (2.4 goals conceded per game)
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a very tight game with almost identical win probabilities for both teams (Sunderland 33%, Fulham 34%) and a draw (33%)
- Offensive duel: Fulham's potent attack (1.35 goals/game) led by Harry Wilson (8 goals) will test Sunderland's stable defense
Risk Factors
- Fulham's away weakness: Conceding an average of 2.4 goals per away game makes Fulham's defense a significant risk factor
- Sunderland's offense: The home team has failed to score in 10 of 26 games this season, and their goal production has recently declined
Overview
Sunderland (11th place, 36 points) host Fulham (13th place, 34 points) at the Stadium of Light
Premier League match on February 22, 2026, 2:00 PM
A mid-table clash with only two points separating the teams
Form
Sunderland's form in the last five games: LWLLW (2 wins, 3 losses)
Fulham's form in the last five games: WLLLW (2 wins, 3 losses)
Both teams show identical and inconsistent form
Both won their last match, ending a losing streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Fulham is more potent offensively with 1.35 goals per game compared to Sunderland's 1.04
Sunderland is defensively more stable, conceding an average of 1.15 goals, while Fulham concedes 1.54
A key factor could be Sunderland's home strength, conceding only 0.5 goals per game at home
In contrast, Fulham is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game
Fulham's matches have seen more goals, with 15 of 26 games ending with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fulham has the edge with 3 wins, while Sunderland won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 7-5 in favor of Fulham
The last encounter was won by Fulham 1-0
Key Players
Sunderland: Brian Brobbey (5 goals, 1 assist), Enzo Le FĂ©e (3 goals, 4 assists), and Nordi Mukiele (1 goal, 4 assists)
Fulham: Harry Wilson (8 goals, 4 assists), RaĂșl JimĂ©nez (6 goals, 3 assists), and Emile Smith Rowe (3 goals)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Sunderland is Robin Roefs; his team has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Fulham's goalkeeper is Bernd Leno; his team has achieved 5 clean sheets
Based on team stats, Sunderland has had the more defensively successful season
Influences
The Stadium of Light is a fortress for Sunderland, where the team concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per game
Recent matches at this stadium have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 1.8 goals per game
In only 2 of the last 5 home games did both teams score