Match report →
Le Havre – Angers SCO0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Le Havre
1.25
Total xG
2.43
Angers SCO
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Havre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Rassoul Ndiaye on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 74% of goal output missing (only 18% available) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Le Havre: Only 19% of seasonal goal threat is active as key player Rassoul Ndiaye (4 goals, 4 assists) is missing
- Offensive improvement: Angers SCO is scoring more frequently recently (1.3) than their season average (1.0)
- Highly balanced forecast: Mathematical analysis models a tight game with a 36% home win probability and a 33% away win probability
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Angers SCO concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away match this season
- Low offensive threat: Angers SCO averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Limited data availability for duel statistics in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Le Havre36%
Draw31%
Angers SCO33%
Double chance
Le Havre or draw67%
Angers SCO or draw64%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Le Havre 4-3-3 · Angers SCO 4-2-3-1
Le Havre
- 93 G. Gallon
- 12 E. Jelert Kristensen
- 15 A. Seko
- 5 A. Touba
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 9 J. Maja
- 25 M. Samatta
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 36 B. Diatta
- 10 M. Sbai
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
Substitutes
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 38 R. Fofana
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 40 K. Teixeira
- 23 V. Sasso
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 33 Hakim Dongopandji
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 9 P. Peter
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 16 M. Zinga
- 6 L. Mouton
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 11 D. Harouna
- 7 M. Simbakoli
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