Match report →
Monaco – Lens2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
1.80
Total xG
3.17
Lens
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Mamadou Coulibaly not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Stanis Idumbo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Ismaëlo Ganiou on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Monaco enters as slight favorites, unbeaten with 4 wins in their last 5 matches
- Lens averaged a strong 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Monaco must play without injured key performers Mamadou Coulibaly (3 goals, 3 assists) and Stanis Idumbo
Risks
- Lens conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match in recent games
- Monaco's recent expected goals of 1.24 xG are below their season average of 1.63 xG
All probabilities
Result
Monaco47%
Draw26%
Lens28%
Double chance
Monaco or draw72%
Lens or draw53%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Monaco: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
- Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Monaco: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 12 games)
Lineups
Monaco 4-4-2 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 37 E. Diop
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 10 A. Golovin
- 11 M. Abline
- 29 P. Brunner
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 32 K. Antonio
- 20 J. Todibo
- 14 M. Udol
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 21 A. Haidara
- 28 J. Kadile
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 38 M.Soares
- 19 A. Sima
Substitutes
- 22 M. Karim
- 18 T. Minamino
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 9 F. Balogun
- 19 P. Cabral
- 49 I. Touré
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 47 S. Benzahra
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 11 O. Édouard
- 24 J. Gradit
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 9 T. Hazard
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 31 S. Sagnan
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