šŸ‡«šŸ‡·

Ligue 1

Monaco - Lens

09/18/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Monaco
1.8
Total xG
3.2
Lens
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MONLEN

Monaco

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Mamadou Coulibaly not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Stanis Idumbo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

Lens

Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Ismaƫlo Ganiou on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Monaco: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)

  • 4
    Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Monaco: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Monaco enters as slight favorites, unbeaten with 4 wins in their last 5 matches
  • Lens averaged a strong 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Monaco must play without injured key performers Mamadou Coulibaly (3 goals, 3 assists) and Stanis Idumbo
Risk Factors
  • Lens conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match in recent games
  • Monaco's recent expected goals of 1.24 xG are below their season average of 1.63 xG
Overview

Monaco (2nd place, 10 points) hosts Lens (10th place, 4 points) at Stade Louis II

Ligue 1 match on September 18, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home team aims to extend their unbeaten run and challenge for the top spot

Form

Monaco shows strong form of WWWWD with 4 wins in their last 5 matches

Most recently, they recorded a 1-1 draw against Strasbourg

Lens has a form of WLLWD with 2 wins and 2 losses

The visitors recently drew 2-2 against Le Mans

Statistics

Monaco scores an average of 1.76 goals per game this season and concedes 1.59

At home, the team averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded

Lens averages 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded on the road

Throughout the season, the visitors maintain an average of 1.94 goals scored

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Lens celebrated 2 wins, Monaco won 1 game with 1 draw

The last direct encounter ended 3-2 for Monaco on February 21, 2026

In total, Lens scored 11 goals in these matches, while Monaco scored 5

Key Players

Paris Brunner impresses with 4 goals in his last 5 games and a rating of 7.23

Aleksandr Golovin recently contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Lamine Camara shows a rising form trend with a rating of 7.48

For the visitors, Florian Thauvin shines with 11 goals and 6 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Lukas Hradecky kept 5 clean sheets for Monaco this season

On the other side, Robin Risser has 4 clean sheets in away games for Lens

Both goalkeepers display stable performances

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at Stade Louis II

The historical home record shows an average of 3.0 goals per game at Stade Louis II

Monaco benefits from home advantage with 1.74 goals scored on average

The mathematical model predicts 1.80 home goals and 1.36 away goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.