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Ligue 1

Le Mans - Lorient

09/19/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Le Mans
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Lorient
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

10%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
LMLOR

Le Mans

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.58
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.55
Full strength squad available

Lorient

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

30%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Attacking consistency: Le Mans score an average of 1.75 goals per game
  • Tactical style: Le Mans recently focused on counter-attacks, averaging 45% possession and 4.2 shots on target
  • Squad impact: Théo Le Bris is missing from Lorient's lineup (2 goals, 2 assists)
Risk Factors
  • Lorient concede an average of 2.17 goals per away game
  • Defensive issues for Le Mans with an average of 2.00 goals conceded per match
  • Limited historical head-to-head data available
Overview

Le Mans (14th place, 3 points) host Lorient (9th place, 5 points) at Stade de La Pincenardière

Ligue 1 match on September 19, 2026, 6:45 PM

The home team is still searching for their first league win

Form

Le Mans with form DLDD (0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Lorient with form DDLWD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Recently Le Mans drew 2-2 with Lens and Lorient drew 2-2 with Toulouse

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Le Mans scores an average of 1.75 goals and concedes 2.00 goals per match

Lorient average 1.41 goals scored per game this season

All 4 of Le Mans' league games ended with both teams scoring

Key Players

Louis Mafouta averages a 7.22 rating at Stade de La Pincenardière

Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa records a 7.20 home rating with 1 goal and 2 assists

Jean-Victor Makengo has scored 4 goals for Lorient this season

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Kocik guards the goal for Le Mans with an average rating of 7.16

Yvon Mvogo starts for Lorient with a season rating of 6.83

Le Mans are yet to record a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Le Mans have recorded 2 draws on this surface

Lorient have a historical record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf

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