Match report →
Le Mans – Lorient2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Le Mans
1.06
Total xG
2.47
Lorient
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Mans | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.55 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attacking consistency: Le Mans score an average of 1.75 goals per game
- Tactical style: Le Mans recently focused on counter-attacks, averaging 45% possession and 4.2 shots on target
- Squad impact: Théo Le Bris is missing from Lorient's lineup (2 goals, 2 assists)
Risks
- Lorient concede an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Defensive issues for Le Mans with an average of 2.00 goals conceded per match
- Limited historical head-to-head data available
All probabilities
Result
Le Mans27%
Draw30%
Lorient43%
Double chance
Le Mans or draw57%
Lorient or draw73%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
10%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
Final score
Lineups
Le Mans 3-1-4-2 · Lorient 3-4-2-1
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 17 S. Yohou
- 5 H. Voyer
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 26 R. Bamba
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 10 J. Vercruysse
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 13 H. Diallo
- 14 L. Mafouta
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 20 D. Sylla
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 77 P. Katseris
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 18 I. Baldé
Substitutes
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 25 D. Guèye
- 15 N. Boissé
- 8 A. Lauray
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 22 L. Calodat
- 95 S. Toure
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 42 M. Koné
- 2 A. Georgen
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