Match report →
Nice – LOSC Lille2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nice
0.96
Total xG
2.54
LOSC Lille
1.59
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nice | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap) | −0.32 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Sofiane Diop on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Melvin Bard not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Olivier Giroud on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Extreme loss of quality for Nice: Only 55% of goal threat available with Sofiane Diop and Melvin Bard not in the squad
- Tactical superiority: Lille recently averaged 5.2 shots on target per match compared to only 2.8 for Nice
- Statistical projection: The model calculates a 51% probability of an away win for Lille
Risks
- Nice's goal production is currently stalling, with only 0.5 goals per match recently compared to a season average of 1.0
- Nice showed limited offensive threat recently, averaging only 2.8 shots on target per match
- Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Nice21%
Draw28%
LOSC Lille51%
Double chance
Nice or draw49%
LOSC Lille or draw79%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Nice with Elye Wahi starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (10/11 games, last 24)
- Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Nice 3-4-2-1 · LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 28 A. Witsel
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 22 T. Santos Carvalho
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 21 B. André
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 19 B. Onal
- 18 A. Ueda
Substitutes
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 36 A. Seidu
- 21 I. Jansson
- 2 A. Abdi
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 10 S. Diop
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 17 N. Mukau
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
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