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Ligue 1

Nice - LOSC Lille

09/20/2026, 03:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Nice
1.0
Total xG
2.5
LOSC Lille
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
NICLL

Nice

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.43
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap)
-0.32
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.16
Sofiane Diop on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Melvin Bard  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 54% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

LOSC Lille

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Olivier Giroud on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Nice with Elye Wahi starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (10/11 games, last 24)

  • 3
    Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 4
    LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

28%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Extreme loss of quality for Nice: Only 55% of goal threat available with Sofiane Diop and Melvin Bard not in the squad
  • Tactical superiority: Lille recently averaged 5.2 shots on target per match compared to only 2.8 for Nice
  • Statistical projection: The model calculates a 51% probability of an away win for Lille
Risk Factors
  • Nice's goal production is currently stalling, with only 0.5 goals per match recently compared to a season average of 1.0
  • Nice showed limited offensive threat recently, averaging only 2.8 shots on target per match
  • Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Nice host LOSC Lille at the Allianz Riviera

Ligue 1 match on September 20, 2026, 5:15 PM

Nice are in 18th place with 2 points

LOSC Lille are in 4th place with 10 points

Form

Nice form is LDLDL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last games

LOSC Lille form is WDWLW

3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Nice average 1.09 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded this season

LOSC Lille average 1.53 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game

At home, Nice scored 19 goals in 17 games

Lille scored 28 goals in 18 away games

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

1 win for Nice, 1 win for LOSC Lille, and 2 draws

Goal record of 5 to 4 in favor of Nice

The last match ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Jonathan Clauss with 1 goal and 6 assists this season

Elye Wahi has 5 goals this season for Nice

HĂ„kon Arnar Haraldsson scored 8 goals for Lille

Goalkeepers

Yehvann Diouf in goal for Nice with 6 clean sheets this season

Berke Özer with 32 appearances and 13 clean sheets for Lille

Influences

Allianz Riviera matches average 1.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the games at this venue

Lille had 7 days of rest, while Nice had 8 days

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