Match report →
Auxerre – Brest2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Auxerre
1.28
Total xG
2.59
Brest
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Auxerre | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Naouirou Ahamada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Auxerre: Only 53% of regular starting goals available, with Sinaly Diomandé, Naouirou Ahamada, and Romain Faivre missing
- Brest showed high offensive output recently, averaging 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Auxerre are currently scoring more frequently (1.2) than their season average of 1.0
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Brest concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Auxerre34%
Draw30%
Brest36%
Double chance
Auxerre or draw64%
Brest or draw66%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)
- Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Auxerre 3-4-3 · Brest 4-2-3-1
Auxerre
- 23 M. Diop
- 15 C. Makosso
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 71 R. Le Guen
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 10 G. Versini
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Substitutes
- 93 S. Fofana
- 35 E. Legros
- 20 S. Diomande
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 1 P. Nardi
- 21 R. Faivre
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 29 L. Tousart
- 17 M. Baldé
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 32 M. Lainé
- 39 D. N´Guessan
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →