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Ligue 1

Auxerre - Brest

09/20/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Auxerre
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Brest
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AUXBRE

Auxerre

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Naouirou Ahamada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Brest

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)

  • 2
    Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Auxerre: Only 53% of regular starting goals available, with Sinaly Diomandé, Naouirou Ahamada, and Romain Faivre missing
  • Brest showed high offensive output recently, averaging 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Auxerre are currently scoring more frequently (1.2) than their season average of 1.0
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Brest concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Auxerre host Brest at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Ligue 1 match on September 20, 2026, 3:00 PM

Auxerre are in 16th place with 3 points

Brest sit in 9th place with 5 points

Form

Auxerre form: DLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Auxerre recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Brest form: LDDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Brest registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Auxerre score 1.00 goal and concede 1.29 goals per match on average

At home, Auxerre average 1.00 goal scored and 0.94 goals conceded

Brest average 1.26 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per match

The mathematical model estimates a 34% probability for a home win and 36% for an away win

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Auxerre secured 2 wins, Brest won 1 match, and 1 ended in a draw

The overall goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Auxerre

The last direct encounter ended in a 3:0 home win for Auxerre

Key Players

Danny Namaso scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Kévin Danois has 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Kamory Doumbia stands out with 5 goals and 4 assists

Ludovic Ajorque registered 8 goals and 9 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Mamadou Diop is expected to start for Auxerre

Egil Selvik plays as goalkeeper for Brest

Both teams have achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps averages 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches played at this venue

Auxerre had 8 days of rest before this match, while Brest had 7 days of rest

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