Match report →
Paris – Strasbourg2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Paris
1.36
Total xG
2.81
Strasbourg
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.3 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| 33% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical Metric: Strasbourg showed offensive strength with an average of 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Turf advantage: Paris is strong at home on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 matches
- Form trend: Paris remains undefeated this season with 8 points from 4 matches
Risks
- Severe loss: Strasbourg is missing top scorer J. Panichelli (Cruciate Ligament Tear), leaving only 65% of their goal production active
- Defensive weakness: Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Paris34%
Draw28%
Strasbourg38%
Double chance
Paris or draw62%
Strasbourg or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Strasbourg: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Paris: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Paris 4-2-3-1 · Strasbourg 4-1-4-1
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 17 A. Camara
- 5 M. Mbow
- 42 D. Coppola
- 14 H. Traoré
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 6 I. Doukoure
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 80 G. Yassine
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 10 G. Reyna
- 11 S. Nanasi
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
Substitutes
- 23 R. Matondo
- 93 N. Ikoné
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 27 M. Simon
- 25 Y. Koré
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 40 C. Harder
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 21 P. Diop
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 35 Y. Diémé
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