🇫🇷

Ligue 1

Paris - Strasbourg

09/19/2026, 03:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Paris
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Strasbourg
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PARSTR

Paris

Rising form (2.3 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

Strasbourg

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.00
33% of goal output missing (only 64% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Strasbourg: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Paris: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Tactical Metric: Strasbourg showed offensive strength with an average of 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Turf advantage: Paris is strong at home on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 matches
  • Form trend: Paris remains undefeated this season with 8 points from 4 matches
Risk Factors
  • Severe loss: Strasbourg is missing top scorer J. Panichelli (Cruciate Ligament Tear), leaving only 65% of their goal production active
  • Defensive weakness: Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away match
Overview

Paris hosts Strasbourg at the Stade Jean Bouin

Matchup between 4th and 6th in Ligue 1

Only one point separates the two teams in the standings

Form

Paris enters with a form of DDWWD showing 2 wins and 3 draws

Strasbourg travels with a form of LLWWD showing 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses

Both teams come off a draw in their previous league match

Statistics

Paris scores an average of 1.38 goals per game this season

Strasbourg concedes an average of 1.75 goals away from home

The visitors score an average of 1.75 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in recent history

Strasbourg has recorded one win, with the other match ending in a draw

Their last encounter on March 15, 2026, finished in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Ilan Kebbal leads Paris with 9 goals this season

Sebastian Nanasi has scored 7 goals for Strasbourg

Diego Moreira has recorded 7 assists for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Kevin Trapp is in goal for Paris

Filip Jørgensen starts in goal for Strasbourg

Strasbourg has kept 9 clean sheets this season compared to 8 for Paris

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Stade Jean Bouin

Paris has a solid artificial turf record of 6 wins in 10 games

Strasbourg won both of their matches on this surface

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.