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Olympique Lyonnais – Rennes4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Lyonnais
1.43
Total xG
2.95
Rennes
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Lyonnais | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Estéban Lepaul on the bench (20 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Mousa Tamari on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Ludovic Blas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Szymanski not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 71% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 46% of the goal threat available, without Estéban Lepaul, Mousa Tamari, Ludovic Blas, Sebastian Szymanski
- Rennes averaged 18.2 shots per game in recent matches
- Olympique Lyonnais averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Olympique Lyonnais with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Rennes with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Rennes concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Lyonnais34%
Draw27%
Rennes38%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw62%
Rennes or draw66%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Rennes: 62% of all goals in the first half (15 of 24, last 12 games)
Lineups
Olympique Lyonnais 4-2-3-1 · Rennes 4-1-4-1
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 23 T. Morton
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 10 P. Šulc
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 17 L. Openda
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 21 V. Rongier
- 70 A. Nordin
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 45 M. Camara
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 22 B. Dia
Substitutes
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 18 K. Merah
- 40 R. Descamps
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 76 M. Ouédraogo
- 26 K. Boudache
- 11 K. Nakamura
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 24 A. Rouault
- 10 L. Blas
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 18 M. Nagida
- 17 S. Szymański
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 16 N. Lemaître
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