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Ligue 1

Toulouse - Le Havre

09/19/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Toulouse
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Le Havre
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
TOULH

Toulouse

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.69
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.02
Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Santiago Hidalgo on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 29% available)

Le Havre

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.06
Rassoul Ndiaye on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 24% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toulouse: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 3
    Toulouse: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Only 30% of goal threat available for Toulouse, as Yann Gboho and Santiago Hidalgo are not in the lineup
  • Only 25% of goal threat available for Le Havre, as Rassoul Ndiaye is not in the lineup
  • Toulouse recently averaged 3.8 shots on target per match in past games
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Le Havre concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Both teams are in a form crisis and are winless in their last 5 matches
  • According to advancedStats, both teams show struggling goal production compared to their season average
Overview

Toulouse host Le Havre at Stadium de Toulouse

Ligue 1 match on September 19, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct bottom-of-the-table clash between 17th and 16th place

Both teams are under pressure with 2 points each

Form

Toulouse are waiting for their first win with a form of LLDLD

Le Havre show a similarly winless run of DLDLD

Neither team has managed a single victory in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toulouse scored an average of 1.42 goals per game this season

Le Havre face severe defensive issues away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away match

The visitors score an average of only 0.94 goals per game

Toulouse kept 9 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

Two wins for Toulouse, one win for Le Havre, and one draw in their last four meetings

The last direct clash ended in a 2-1 victory for Le Havre

Toulouse scored a total of 7 goals in these matches, while Le Havre scored 3 goals

Key Players

Cristian Cásseres Jr. impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.09 alongside 2 goals and 3 assists

Jacen Russell-Rowe contributes 1 goal in attack with a rating of 6.57

Rafik Messali stabilizes the center with a rating of 6.67

For the visitors, Issa Soumaré stands out with 8 goals, 5 assists, and a rating of 7.1

Simon Ebonog contributes 1 league goal in midfield with a rating of 6.61

Mory Diaw shines in goal with an average rating of 6.95

Goalkeepers

Guillaume Restes guards the Toulouse goal and kept 9 clean sheets this season

Gauthier Gallon starts in goal for Le Havre to stabilize the defense

Statistically, Toulouse recorded more clean sheets this season

Influences

Toulouse scored 25 goals and conceded 24 in 18 home matches

Le Havre recorded only 12 goals while conceding 26 in 13 away games

The stadium trend shows an average of 2.8 goals per game

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