Match report →
Toulouse – Le Havre3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Toulouse
1.85
Total xG
2.79
Le Havre
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toulouse | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.69 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Santiago Hidalgo on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 74% of goal output missing (only 29% available) | ||
| Rassoul Ndiaye on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 24% available) |
Key factors
- Only 30% of goal threat available for Toulouse, as Yann Gboho and Santiago Hidalgo are not in the lineup
- Only 25% of goal threat available for Le Havre, as Rassoul Ndiaye is not in the lineup
- Toulouse recently averaged 3.8 shots on target per match in past games
Risks
- Away weakness: Le Havre concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Both teams are in a form crisis and are winless in their last 5 matches
- According to advancedStats, both teams show struggling goal production compared to their season average
All probabilities
Result
Toulouse57%
Draw25%
Le Havre17%
Double chance
Toulouse or draw83%
Le Havre or draw43%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Toulouse: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Toulouse 4-4-2 · Le Havre 3-4-2-1
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 22 R. Messali
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 12 C. Tapé
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 14 N. Sigur
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 37 I. Azizi
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
- 20 C. Tengstedt
Le Havre
- 93 G. Gallon
- 23 V. Sasso
- 15 A. Seko
- 5 A. Touba
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 12 E. Jelert Kristensen
- 38 R. Fofana
- 25 M. Samatta
- 9 J. Maja
Substitutes
- 6 A. Vossah
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 15 A. Dønnum
- 18 M. Amougou
- 19 D. Odogu
- 11 S. Oppong
- 60 M. Niflore
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 16 A. Bodart
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 97 M. Ndiaye
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