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Ligue 1

Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint Germain

09/20/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Olympique Marseille
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Paris Saint Germain
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OMPSG

Olympique Marseille

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.08
Angel Gomes on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Paris Saint Germain

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Achraf Hakimi not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Strasbourg: 2 goals (89', 90+6')

  • 2
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Olympique Marseille: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

30%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: PSG averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.6 for Marseille
  • Rest factor: Paris Saint Germain has 7 days of rest while Marseille only had 3 days since their last game
  • Historical dominance: Paris Saint Germain won 3 of the last 4 direct matches including the most recent 5:0 victory
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue for Olympique Marseille with only 3 days of recovery since their last game
  • Defensive struggles for Marseille with an average of 2.0 goals conceded in recent games
  • Limited data on weather conditions
Overview

Olympique Marseille (16th place, 3 points) host Paris Saint Germain (10th place, 5 points) at the Stade Vélodrome

Ligue 1 match on September 20, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home team aims to climb out of the bottom of the table

Form

Marseille's form is WLLLL with 1 win and 4 losses

Paris Saint Germain's form is DDLWW with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Explanation of form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Marseille averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per match

PSG averages 2.18 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

At home, Marseille scores 1.86 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

1 win for Olympique Marseille and 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain

The last match ended in a 0:5 victory for Paris Saint Germain on February 8, 2026

Key Players

Amine Gouiri recently scored 4 goals in 5 matches with a 7.42 rating

Vitinha shines in midfield with a 7.78 recent rating

Ousmane Dembélé has 10 season goals and a 7.18 rating

Not nominated: Angel Gomes (3 goals, 0 assists) and Achraf Hakimi (2 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Jeffrey de Lange starts for Marseille with a 6.51 rating

Matvey Safonov defends PSG's goal with 18 clean sheets this season

Influences

Marseille has only 3 days of rest since their last match

PSG arrives with 7 days of recovery

Stade Vélodrome features a grass pitch and averages 3.8 goals per game

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