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Olympique Marseille – Paris Saint Germain1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Marseille
1.34
Total xG
2.61
Paris Saint Germain
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Marseille | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Angel Gomes on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Achraf Hakimi not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: PSG averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.6 for Marseille
- Rest factor: Paris Saint Germain has 7 days of rest while Marseille only had 3 days since their last game
- Historical dominance: Paris Saint Germain won 3 of the last 4 direct matches including the most recent 5:0 victory
Risks
- Fatigue for Olympique Marseille with only 3 days of recovery since their last game
- Defensive struggles for Marseille with an average of 2.0 goals conceded in recent games
- Limited data on weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Marseille37%
Draw30%
Paris Saint Germain33%
Double chance
Olympique Marseille or draw67%
Paris Saint Germain or draw63%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Strasbourg: 2 goals (89', 90+6')
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Olympique Marseille: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Olympique Marseille 4-4-2 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 77 A. Harit
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 11 N. Maupay
- 9 A. Gouiri
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 5 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 25 N. Mendes
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 14 D. Doue
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitutes
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 7 A. Gomes
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 46 E. Koum Mbondo
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 9 F. Torres García
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 12 L. Digne
- 22 M. Godts
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