Match report →
Angers SCO – Troyes2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Angers SCO
1.33
Total xG
2.34
Troyes
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Angers SCO | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Midfield form: Branco van den Boomen is in outstanding shape for Angers SCO, recently averaging a 7.45 rating
- Tactical setup: Angers SCO averaged 2.6 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Troyes side conceding 2.25 goals per game
- Model backing: The mathematical analysis favors the home side with a 43% win probability
Risks
- Critical offensive vacuum for Troyes with 0% active goal share available in the squad data
- Limited player performance data available for Troyes in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Angers SCO43%
Draw31%
Troyes27%
Double chance
Angers SCO or draw73%
Troyes or draw57%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Angers SCO: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Angers SCO 4-4-2 · Troyes 4-2-3-1
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 10 M. Sbai
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
- 9 P. Peter
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 8 M. Diop
- 29 K. Dermane
- 17 A. Mille
- 11 I. Gomis
- 23 T. NKada
- 9 J. Le Douaron
Substitutes
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 16 M. Zinga
- 93 H. Belkebla
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 11 D. Harouna
- 36 B. Diatta
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 22 H. Picard
- 7 K. Diawara
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 20 R. Ripart
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 39 Y. Kone
- 36 I. Soukouna
- 41 E. Carneiro
- 34 L. Simakha
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