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Ligue 1

Angers SCO - Troyes

09/19/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Angers SCO
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Troyes
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
ASTRO

Angers SCO

Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.05

Troyes

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Angers SCO: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Midfield form: Branco van den Boomen is in outstanding shape for Angers SCO, recently averaging a 7.45 rating
  • Tactical setup: Angers SCO averaged 2.6 shots on target in recent matches, facing a Troyes side conceding 2.25 goals per game
  • Model backing: The mathematical analysis favors the home side with a 43% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Critical offensive vacuum for Troyes with 0% active goal share available in the squad data
  • Limited player performance data available for Troyes in the provided dataset
Overview

Angers SCO host Troyes at the Stade Raymond Kopa

Ligue 1 match on September 19, 2026, 8:45 PM

Mid-table clash between 11th and 12th place

Both sides are currently level on 4 points

Form

Angers SCO enter with a form of DLWLD

Coming off a 0-0 draw against Le Havre

Troyes show a form of DWLL

Losing 0-2 against LOSC Lille in their last match

Angers SCO show a positive trend scoring 1.3 goals recently compared to their 1.0 season average

Statistics

Angers SCO average 0.86 goals scored and 0.95 conceded at home

Troyes concede an average of 1.50 goals in away games

The visitors average 2.25 goals conceded per game this season

The mathematical prediction projects 1.33 home goals and 1.00 away goals

Key Players

Branco van den Boomen leads Angers with a 7.45 rating, scoring 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Ousmane Camara shows a rising form trend with a 7.10 rating

Amine Sbaï is also on an upward trend with a 6.84 rating

Goalkeepers

Anthony Lopes is in goal for the hosts, averaging a 7.35 rating at home

Patrick Beach starts in goal for Troyes

Angers SCO have kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to just 1 for Troyes

Influences

The match is played on grass at Stade Raymond Kopa

Venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at this venue

The model predicts a 43% probability for a home win

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