Premier League
Manchester City - Newcastle United
02/21/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.2
1.3
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%3:1
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
25%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Fortress Etihad Stadium: Manchester City are extremely strong at home (2.13 goals per game, only 0.53 conceded), while Newcastle are defensively vulnerable away (1.89 conceded)
- Attacking Power: With Erling Haaland (22 goals), City has one of the best offenses in the league that scores consistently
- Significant Absences for Newcastle: The loss of top scorer Bruno Guimarães (9 goals) as well as defenders Botman and SchÀr significantly weakens Newcastle
Risk Factors
- Personnel issues at Newcastle: With the absence of Bruno GuimarĂŁes, the team is missing 32% of its seasonal goals, severely impacting their offense
- Potential fatigue for the visitors: Newcastle has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to a fitness disadvantage
- Newcastle's recent attacking trend: Despite the absences, Newcastle has played strongly lately, averaging 2.8 goals over the last 5 games
Overview
Manchester City (2nd place, 53 points) host Newcastle United (10th place, 36 points) at the Etihad Stadium
Premier League match on February 21, 2026, 8:00 PM
This is a crucial match for City's title aspirations, while Newcastle are positioned in the mid-table
The mathematical analysis favors a home win with a 51% probability
Form
Manchester City's form: WDWWW
In the last 5 matches, they have 4 wins and 1 draw
Newcastle United's form: LLWWW
In the last 5 matches, they have 3 wins and 2 losses
Both teams come into this match on a three-game winning streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Manchester City are a force at home, averaging 2.13 goals scored and just 0.53 goals conceded per game
Newcastle United, on the other hand, are defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.89 goals
Matches involving both teams often feature many goals, with both having over 2.5 goals in 16 of their 26 league games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Manchester City dominated with 3 wins, only one loss, and one draw
The goal difference of 11:4 also clearly favors the home team
The last meeting was a 3-1 win for City
Key Players
Erling Haaland is the standout attacker for Manchester City with 22 season goals and 6 assists
Phil Foden has contributed 7 goals and 3 assists, while Bernardo Silva directs play from midfield with a rising form trend
For Newcastle, Malick Thiaw is a goal threat despite his defensive position, with 4 goals
Sandro Tonali has shown improved form recently, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games
Anthony Gordon has scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
In goal for Manchester City is Gianluigi Donnarumma, whose team has kept 11 clean sheets this season
His counterpart is Newcastle's Nick Pope, who has kept 7 clean sheets with his team
Influences
Manchester City's home advantage at the Etihad Stadium is immense
They average over 2.13 goals scored per game at home while conceding extremely few (0.53 per game)
The last five home matches have been very high-scoring, with an average of 4.0 goals per game