Match report →
Monaco – Toulouse2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
1.51
Total xG
2.55
Toulouse
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.31 | +0.31 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Paris Brunner not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 70% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model favorite: Mathematical analysis probabilities give Monaco a 47% chance of a home win
- Attacking form: Monaco increased their scoring output recently to 2.2 goals per match
- H2H dominance: Monaco remain undefeated in all 4 historical encounters against Toulouse (2 wins, 2 draws)
Risks
- Squad impact: Paris Brunner is suspended, leaving Monaco with only 67% of their seasonal goal threat active
- Away weakness: Toulouse concede an average of 1.47 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Monaco47%
Draw29%
Toulouse24%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Monaco or draw76%
Toulouse or draw53%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Monaco: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Toulouse: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Monaco: 69% of all goals in the second half (18 of 26, last 12 games)
Lineups
Monaco 4-2-3-1 · Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 37 E. Diop
- 10 A. Golovin
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 11 M. Abline
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 22 R. Messali
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 12 C. Tapé
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 6 A. Vossah
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 37 I. Azizi
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Substitutes
- 22 M. Karim
- 17 S. Idumbo Muzambo
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 9 F. Balogun
- 31 A. Fati
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 47 S. Benzahra
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 15 A. Dønnum
- 18 M. Amougou
- 14 N. Sigur
- 19 D. Odogu
- 94 I. Diallo
- 11 S. Oppong
- 60 M. Niflore
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