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Troyes – Olympique Marseille0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Troyes
1.41
Total xG
2.86
Olympique Marseille
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Troyes | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +1.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model calculations: Mathematical analysis indicates a balanced matchup with a 37% away win chance, 35% home win, and 28% draw
- Offensive output: Olympique Marseille averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Troyes averaging 2.8
- Form struggles: Troyes have suffered 3 consecutive defeats, while Olympique Marseille carry a 5-match losing streak
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Troyes: Averaging 3.0 goals conceded per home game this season
- Away defensive struggles for Olympique Marseille: Averaging 2.08 goals conceded per away game
- Limited data availability regarding direct head-to-head records
All probabilities
Result
Troyes35%
Draw28%
Olympique Marseille37%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Troyes or draw63%
Olympique Marseille or draw65%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Marseille: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Strasbourg: 2 goals (89', 90+6')
- Olympique Marseille: 79% of all goals in the second half (11 of 14, last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Troyes 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 8 M. Diop
- 29 K. Dermane
- 17 A. Mille
- 11 I. Gomis
- 7 K. Diawara
- 9 J. Le Douaron
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 77 A. Harit
- 7 A. Gomes
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 22 H. Picard
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 23 T. NKada
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 20 R. Ripart
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 37 C. Batola
- 34 L. Simakha
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 6 T. Nadi
- 46 E. Koum Mbondo
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