Match report ā
Nice ā Strasbourg2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nice
1.37
Total xG
2.54
Strasbourg
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | ā0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | ā0.14 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | ā0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | ā0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Sebastian Nanasi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jacobo Ortega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Nice's available lineup currently holds only 5% of their usual seasonal goal threat
- Offensive output: Strasbourg averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.0 for Nice
- Goal expectation: Model calculates a 53% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Nice's goal production stalls with a recent average of 0.8 goals per match
- Sebastian Nanasi and Jacobo Ortega are missing from Strasbourg's starting lineup
- Nice averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Nice40%
Draw30%
Strasbourg31%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Nice or draw69%
Strasbourg or draw60%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nice with Elye Wahi starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (11/10 games, last 24)
- Nice: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Strasbourg: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Nice 3-4-2-1 Ā· Strasbourg 4-3-3
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 28 A. Witsel
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jƶrgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 36 J. MartĆnez Gauna
- 23 D. LobĆ£o Sousa
- 21 P. Diop
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 40 C. Harder
- 80 G. Yassine
Substitutes
- 36 A. Seidu
- 21 I. Jansson
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 10 S. Diop
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 38 A. Camara
- 41 D. Morana
- 10 G. Reyna
- 19 F. Uri BaldƩ
- 11 S. Nanasi
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 24 L. HĆøgsberg
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 43 Y. Becker
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 35 Y. DiƩmƩ
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