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LOSC Lille – Le Havre1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.55
Total xG
2.49
Le Havre
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Ayase Ueda on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model signal: Mathematical model calculates a 50% chance for a home win (1.55 predicted goals vs 0.94 for Le Havre)
- Squad impact for visitors: Le Havre enters with only 13% of their seasonal goal production available
- Offensive average: LOSC Lille averaged 5.2 shots on target over their last 5 matches
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Le Havre concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Match gap: LOSC Lille with 20 days and Le Havre with 21 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille50%
Draw29%
Le Havre21%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw79%
Le Havre or draw50%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
2:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Le Havre: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1 · Le Havre 4-3-3
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 22 T. Santos Carvalho
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 17 N. Mukau
- 28 G. Perrin
- 9 O. Giroud
Le Havre
- 93 G. Gallon
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 15 A. Seko
- 5 A. Touba
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 9 J. Maja
- 25 M. Samatta
Substitutes
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 21 B. André
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 18 A. Ueda
- 26 I. Cossier
- 35 S. Diaoune
- 38 M. Goffi
- 19 B. Onal
- 12 O. Gill
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 38 R. Fofana
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 16 A. Bodart
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 23 V. Sasso
- 17 K. Mizuta
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