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Ligue 110/10/2026, 06:45 PM

Paris Saint Germain – Le Mans3 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Paris Saint Germain
1.65
Total xG
2.96
Le Mans
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorParis Saint GermainLe Mans
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)−0.45
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.31+0.31
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean−0.22
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.14
Attack strength (1.27x league average)−0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)−0.01
Marquinhos on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
FabiĂĄn Ruiz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Vitinha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Squad impact: Only 46% of usual goal threat available for Paris Saint Germain, missing Marquinhos, FabiĂĄn Ruiz and Vitinha
  • Tactical dominance: Paris Saint Germain averaged 9.0 shots on target with 67% possession in recent matches
  • Expected goal threat: The model predicts an 81% probability for Over 1.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score

Risks

  • Le Mans concede an avg of 2.0 goals per away match and have 0 clean sheets this season
  • Absence for Le Mans: Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa is missing, who contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

All probabilities

Result
Paris Saint Germain44%
Draw27%
Le Mans29%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw71%
Le Mans or draw56%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  2. Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2

Paris Saint Germain
  • 39 M. Safonov
  • 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
  • 6 I. Zabarnyi
  • 21 L. HernĂĄndez Pi
  • 12 L. Digne
  • 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
  • 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
  • 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
  • 11 M. Akliouche
  • 9 F. Torres GarcĂ­a
  • 22 M. Godts
Le Mans
  • 98 N. Kocik
  • 15 N. BoissĂ©
  • 17 S. Yohou
  • 5 H. Voyer
  • 8 A. Lauray
  • 26 R. Bamba
  • 29 L. Bretelle
  • 10 J. Vercruysse
  • 22 L. Calodat
  • 13 H. Diallo
  • 14 L. Mafouta
Substitutes
  • 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
  • 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
  • 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
  • 30 L. Chevalier
  • 17 V. Machado Ferreira
  • 5 M. AoĂĄs CorrĂȘa
  • 14 D. Doue
  • 8 F. Ruiz Peña
  • 33 W. Zaire Emery
  • 16 R. Torrente Navarro
  • 7 B. Brahimi
  • 23 D. TraorĂ©
  • 76 Y. Larouci
  • 18 L. BuadĂ©s
  • 25 D. GuĂšye
  • 9 A. Rabillard
  • 1 E. Hatfout
  • 20 W. Harhouz

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