DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Ligue 110/10/2026, 06:45 PM

Brest ā€“ Angers SCO5 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Brest
1.55
Total xG
2.93
Angers SCO
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorBrestAngers SCO
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.31+0.31
Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average)+0.15
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)+0.10
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)+0.06
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.02
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)āˆ’0.01
Amine El Ouazzani on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Limited attacking threat: Brest hold only 16% of their seasonal goal production in the current lineup
  • Offensive pressure: Brest averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Model edge: The prediction gives Brest a 40% win probability with 1.55 expected home goals

Risks

  • Key absence: Amine El Ouazzani is missing for Angers SCO, leaving only 67% of usual goal threat available
  • Away defensive weakness: Angers SCO concede an average of 2.15 goals per away match
  • Low attacking accuracy: Angers SCO averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games

All probabilities

Result
Brest40%
Draw27%
Angers SCO33%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Brest or draw67%
Angers SCO or draw60%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
5:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Angers SCO: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
  2. Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (16/7 games, last 24)
  3. Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Brest 4-2-3-1 Ā· Angers SCO 4-3-3

Brest
  • 1 E. Selvik
  • 70 K. Lala
  • 29 L. Tousart
  • 4 G. Lloris
  • 2 B. Locko
  • 13 J. Chotard
  • 8 H. Magnetti
  • 17 M. BaldĆ©
  • 23 K. Doumbia
  • 9 P. Mboup
  • 19 L. Ajorque
Angers SCO
  • 1 A. Lopes
  • 20 M. LouĆ£r
  • 4 O. Camara
  • 21 J. Lefort
  • 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
  • 14 Y. Belkdim
  • 93 H. Belkebla
  • 8 B. van den Boomen
  • 18 J. Allevinah
  • 9 P. Peter
  • 10 M. Sbai
Substitutes
  • 11 N. Edjouma
  • 18 J. Bourgault
  • 20 T. Zogbe
  • 6 M. Diambou
  • 21 I. KantĆ©
  • 30 M. Patouillet
  • 7 J. Nonge Boende
  • 34 E. Mailly
  • 39 D. NĀ“Guessan
  • 40 O. Pona
  • 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
  • 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
  • 2 C. Arcus
  • 6 L. Mouton
  • 26 A. Bermont
  • 19 A. El Ouazzani
  • 11 D. Harouna
  • 34 M. Gernigon

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