DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Ligue 110/09/2026, 06:45 PM

Lens ā€“ Olympique Lyonnais2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Lens
1.34
Total xG
2.80
Olympique Lyonnais
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorLensOlympique Lyonnais
Attack strength (1.64x league average)+0.74
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to meanāˆ’0.51
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)āˆ’0.45
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.35+0.35
Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average)+0.21
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)āˆ’0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)āˆ’0.18
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)+0.06
Abdallah Sima not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Strong home record (2.6 vs 2 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Form and trend gap: Lens' goal production has slowed down recently (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (2.0), while Olympique Lyonnais are scoring more frequently (2.5) than their average (1.8)
  • Unbeaten momentum: Olympique Lyonnais enter the match unbeaten (form: DWDWW) with 2 consecutive wins, while Lens lost 3 of their last 5 games
  • Tactical attacking intent: Both sides have been active recently, with Lens averaging 6.2 shots on target and Lyon averaging 6.4 shots on target in their last matches

Risks

  • Lens' defensive vulnerability: The hosts conceded an average of 1.8 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 1.15
  • Lyon's away defensive record: Olympique Lyonnais conceded an average of 1.47 goals per away game throughout the season

All probabilities

Result
Lens33%
Draw28%
Olympique Lyonnais38%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Lens or draw62%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw67%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Lens: 36% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 22)
  3. Olympique Lyonnais: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
  4. Lens: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Lineups

Lens 3-4-2-1 Ā· Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3

Lens
  • 40 R. Risser
  • 24 J. Gradit
  • 25 P. Ganiou
  • 32 K. Antonio
  • 2 R. Aguilar
  • 27 M. Cuisance
  • 8 Y. Titraoui
  • 14 M. Udol
  • 10 F. Thauvin
  • 7 F. Sotoca
  • 11 O. Ɖdouard
Olympique Lyonnais
  • 1 D. Greif
  • 13 Z. Athekame
  • 20 F. Bacher
  • 21 R. Kluivert
  • 16 A. Da Silva Santos
  • 2 M. Bidstrup
  • 23 T. Morton
  • 8 C. Tolisso
  • 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
  • 10 P. Å ulc
  • 17 L. Openda
Substitutes
  • 5 A. Bulatović
  • 23 S. Abdul Hamid
  • 6 S. Baidoo
  • 21 A. Haidara
  • 29 F. Ivanović
  • 16 M. Gorgelin
  • 28 J. Kadile
  • 22 M. SkĆ³raś
  • 38 M.Soares
  • 24 J. Duranville
  • 85 N. Kamara
  • 22 C. Mata Pedro LourenƧo
  • 18 K. Merah
  • 40 R. Descamps
  • 6 T. Tessmann
  • 99 N. Teye Nartey
  • 26 K. Boudache
  • 11 K. Nakamura

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account ā†’