Match report →
Lorient – Paris1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lorient
1.09
Total xG
2.52
Paris
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lorient | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| Rising form (2.7 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.31 | +0.31 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Panos Katseris not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Paris arrive unbeaten in their last 5 matches (DWWDW) while Lorient won only 1 game in that span
- Offensive form: Paris are currently scoring more frequently (2.7 goals per game) than their season average (1.5)
- Surface strength: Paris boast a strong record on artificial turf with 7 wins in 10 matches
Risks
- Lorient averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Lorient lineup impact: Panos Katseris (0 goals, 3 assists) is not in the squad
- Paris concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Lorient27%
Draw30%
Paris43%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Lorient or draw57%
Paris or draw73%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Paris: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Paris 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 95 S. Toure
- 20 D. Sylla
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 2 A. Georgen
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 17 J. Makengo
- 10 I. Jensen
- 42 M. Koné
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 17 A. Camara
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 14 H. Traoré
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Substitutes
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 19 S. Faye
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 18 I. Baldé
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 3 E. Mbemba Nlandu
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