Match report →
Rennes – Auxerre4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Rennes
1.79
Total xG
2.81
Auxerre
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rennes | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Szymanski on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model prediction: Rennes holds a 54% calculated win probability with 1.79 expected goals
- Dominant style: Rennes averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches while controlling 57% possession
- Defensive away vulnerability: Auxerre concedes an average of 1.69 goals per away match
Risks
- Auxerre squad impact: Only 18% of seasonal goal production is available in the starting lineup
- Auxerre momentum: The visitors enter the match following 2 consecutive wins
- Historical record: Auxerre won 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Rennes
All probabilities
Result
Rennes54%
Draw26%
Auxerre20%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Rennes or draw80%
Auxerre or draw46%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 67% of all goals in the first half (14 of 21, last 12 games)
- Rennes: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Rennes: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Rennes 4-3-3 · Auxerre 3-4-2-1
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 18 M. Nagida
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 21 V. Rongier
- 45 M. Camara
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 90 I. Soumaré
Auxerre
- 23 M. Diop
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 21 R. Faivre
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
Substitutes
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 10 L. Blas
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 6 D. Cisse
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 17 S. Szymański
- 22 B. Dia
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
- 35 E. Legros
- 20 S. Diomande
- 1 P. Nardi
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 45 S. Danfakha
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →