Match report →
Le Havre – Auxerre1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Le Havre
1.65
Total xG
2.72
Auxerre
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away form: Auxerre concedes 4 goals per game away in the league this season, Le Havre 1 per game at home
- xG: Le Havre averaged 1.79 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per game
- Head-to-head: Le Havre won 3 of the 4 meetings with Auxerre, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Le Havre went winless in their last 5 matches, Auxerre recorded 2 wins
- Squad: Le Havre without A. Seko, who started in 5 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Le Havre49%
Draw28%
Auxerre23%
Double chance
Le Havre or draw77%
Auxerre or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Auxerre: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Auxerre: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Le Havre: scored only after the break in 3 of 6 games
Lineups
Le Havre 4-3-3 · Auxerre 3-4-2-1
Le Havre
- 93 G. Gallon
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 5 A. Touba
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 9 J. Maja
- 25 M. Samatta
Auxerre
- 1 P. Nardi
- 15 C. Makosso
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 21 R. Faivre
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
Substitutes
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 38 R. Fofana
- 16 A. Bodart
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 23 V. Sasso
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 33 Hakim Dongopandji
- 35 E. Legros
- 20 S. Diomande
- 44 M. Cissokho
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 23 M. Diop
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 47 Y. Khoudda
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