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Olympique Lyonnais – Nice2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Lyonnais
1.78
Total xG
2.95
Nice
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Lyonnais | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ernest Nuamah on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Corentin Tolisso on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Loïs Openda not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Olympique Lyonnais average 2.67 goals per home game in the league, Nice 0 goals per away game
- Table: Olympique Lyonnais sit 5th with 11 points from 6 games, Nice 13th with 8 points
- Head-to-head: Olympique Lyonnais won 3 of the last 4 meetings, Nice 1
Risks
- Rest days: Olympique Lyonnais with 3 days since their last match
- Possession: Nice averaged 54.2% possession in recent games, Olympique Lyonnais 46.6%
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Lyonnais50%
Draw26%
Nice24%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw76%
Nice or draw50%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Lyonnais: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Olympique Lyonnais 4-2-3-1 · Nice 3-4-2-1
Olympique Lyonnais
- 40 R. Descamps
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 26 K. Boudache
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 24 J. Duranville
- 10 P. Šulc
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 28 A. Witsel
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Substitutes
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 23 T. Morton
- 18 K. Merah
- 1 D. Greif
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 45 R. Himbert
- 20 F. Bacher
- 11 K. Nakamura
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 36 A. Seidu
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 21 I. Jansson
- 10 S. Diop
- 8 M. Sanson
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 41 D. Morana
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