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Troyes – Lens1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Troyes
1.25
Total xG
3.23
Lens
1.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Troyes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +1.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.98 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.89 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Matthieu Udol not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Abdallah Sima not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Lens is 11th in the league with 7 points from 6 matches, Troyes is 17th with 4 points
- Home/Away: Troyes concedes 2.67 goals per match at home in the league, Lens scores 1.33 per match away
- Shots: Lens averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Troyes 3 shots on target per match
Risks
- Squad: M. Udol and A. Sima are absent, scoring 3 of the 11 league goals for Lens players this season (27%)
- Away: Lens conceded 2 goals per match away in the league this season and scored 1.33 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Troyes23%
Draw24%
Lens53%
Double chance
Troyes or draw47%
Lens or draw77%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Troyes: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 6 games)
- Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Troyes 4-3-3 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 17 A. Mille
- 29 K. Dermane
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 20 R. Ripart
- 23 T. NKada
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 32 K. Antonio
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 20 J. Todibo
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 11 O. Édouard
Substitutes
- 11 I. Gomis
- 9 J. Le Douaron
- 22 H. Picard
- 7 K. Diawara
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 37 C. Batola
- 34 L. Simakha
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 21 A. Haidara
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 9 T. Hazard
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 38 M.Soares
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