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LOSC Lille – Brest1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.37
Total xG
2.56
Brest
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Ayase Ueda not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tiago Santos not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: LOSC Lille sit 2nd in the league this season after 6 matches, while Brest are 8th
- Home/Away: LOSC Lille conceded 0.67 goals per match at home in the league this season, Brest 1.67 away
Risks
- Personnel: T. Santos Carvalho and A. Ueda are absent, having scored 4 of the 9 league goals for LOSC Lille players this season (44%)
- Shots: Brest averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in recent games, LOSC Lille 3.4 per match
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille39%
Draw30%
Brest31%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw69%
Brest or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Brest: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1 · Brest 4-2-3-1
LOSC Lille
- 12 O. Gill
- 38 M. Goffi
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 15 R. Perraud
- 21 B. André
- 17 N. Mukau
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 9 O. Giroud
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 29 L. Tousart
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 17 M. Baldé
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Substitutes
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 1 B. Özer
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 35 S. Diaoune
- 19 B. Onal
- 40 Z. Lanssade
- 28 G. Perrin
- 33 D. Matah
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 6 M. Diambou
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 39 D. N´Guessan
- 33 E. Monchatre
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