Match report →
Paris – Rennes4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Paris
1.58
Total xG
3.02
Rennes
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Paris scored 1.67 goals per match at home in 3 matches this season, Rennes conceded 2.5 per match away in 2 matches
- Attack: Rennes scored 2 goals per match and conceded 1.67 per match in the league this season
Risks
- Table: Rennes is 4th in the league this season after 6 matches with 13 points, Paris is 6th with 11 points
- xG: Rennes averaged 1.78 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Paris40%
Draw27%
Rennes33%
Double chance
Paris or draw67%
Rennes or draw60%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 7 games (57%)
Lineups
Paris 4-2-3-1 · Rennes 4-3-3
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 17 A. Camara
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 14 H. Traoré
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 17 S. Szymański
- 6 D. Cisse
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 10 L. Blas
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 90 I. Soumaré
Substitutes
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 27 M. Simon
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 3 E. Mbemba Nlandu
- 70 A. Nordin
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 45 M. Camara
- 21 V. Rongier
- 18 M. Nagida
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 22 B. Dia
- 60 K. Belazzoug
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