Match report →
Le Mans – Toulouse0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Le Mans
1.41
Total xG
3.10
Toulouse
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Mans | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lucas Calodat on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 54% available) |
Key factors
- Away: Toulouse scores 2 goals per match away in the league this season, Le Mans concedes 1.67 per match at home
- Attack: Toulouse scored 1.8 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Le Mans conceded 2 goals per match in the last 5 matches
- Possession: Toulouse averaged 51.4% possession in the last 5 matches, Le Mans averaged 41.8%
Risks
- Home: Le Mans scores 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Toulouse concedes 2 per match away
- Table: Both teams have 6 points from 6 matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Le Mans31%
Draw26%
Toulouse43%
Double chance
Le Mans or draw57%
Toulouse or draw69%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toulouse: 50% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 10)
- Le Mans: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- Toulouse: 80% of all goals in the second half (8 of 10, last 7 games)
- Toulouse: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Le Mans 3-1-4-2 · Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 17 S. Yohou
- 5 H. Voyer
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 18 L. Buadés
- 23 D. Traoré
- 10 J. Vercruysse
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 25 D. Guèye
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 22 R. Messali
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 14 N. Sigur
- 15 A. Dønnum
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Substitutes
- 13 H. Diallo
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 26 R. Bamba
- 15 N. Boissé
- 8 A. Lauray
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 22 L. Calodat
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 6 A. Vossah
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 18 M. Amougou
- 19 D. Odogu
- 37 I. Azizi
- 94 I. Diallo
- 1 T. Collin
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