Match report →
Lorient – Monaco1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lorient
1.28
Total xG
2.73
Monaco
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Panos Katseris on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Paris Brunner not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Edan Diop on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eric Dier not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 68% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Monaco sits 3rd in the league with 14 points from 6 matches, Lorient 10th with 8 points
- Form: Monaco took 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, Lorient 2 wins and 2 losses
- Away: Monaco concede 0.67 goals per match away in the league this season, Lorient 1.33 at home
Risks
- Personnel: P. Brunner is missing, having scored 4 of the 9 league goals by Monaco players this season (44%)
- Rest period: Monaco with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Lorient32%
Draw29%
Monaco40%
Double chance
Lorient or draw60%
Monaco or draw68%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Monaco: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Lorient: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lorient: scored only after the break in 4 of 6 games
- Monaco: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 9 games (44%)
Lineups
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Monaco 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 95 S. Toure
- 20 D. Sylla
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 17 J. Makengo
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 18 I. Baldé
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 22 M. Karim
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 18 T. Minamino
- 31 A. Fati
- 10 A. Golovin
- 11 M. Abline
Substitutes
- 77 P. Katseris
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 42 M. Koné
- 2 A. Georgen
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 9 F. Balogun
- 19 P. Cabral
- 37 E. Diop
- 7 M. Detourbet
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