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Angers SCO – Olympique Marseille2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Angers SCO
1.17
Total xG
2.85
Olympique Marseille
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Angers SCO | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Angel Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Marseille averages 1.5 goals per match in the league this season, while Angers SCO concedes 1.67 per match
- Head-to-head: Marseille won 2 of the 4 previous meetings against Angers SCO, with 2 draws
- xG: The model expects 1.68 goals for Olympique Marseille and 1.17 for Angers SCO
Risks
- Rest days: Olympique Marseille with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Olympique Marseille suffered 4 losses in their last 5 matches, Angers SCO 2
All probabilities
Result
Angers SCO25%
Draw27%
Olympique Marseille48%
Double chance
Angers SCO or draw52%
Olympique Marseille or draw75%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Angers SCO: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: 80% of all goals in the second half (8 of 10, last 8 games)
Lineups
Angers SCO 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 6 L. Mouton
- 10 M. Sbai
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 6 T. Nadi
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 77 A. Harit
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 40 O. Pona
- 9 P. Peter
- 93 H. Belkebla
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 11 D. Harouna
- 36 B. Diatta
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 37 J. Bouffandeau
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 7 A. Gomes
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 74 K. Bezahaf
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