Match report →
Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Strasbourg
1.22
Total xG
3.17
Paris Saint Germain
1.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +1.54 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.89 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Diogo Sousa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Nanasi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jacobo Ortega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Marquinhos not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Fabián Ruiz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Vitinha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Paris Saint Germain won all 5 of their last games, Strasbourg recorded 2 wins from their last 5 games
- Attack: Paris Saint Germain averaged 2.45 xG per game in the league this season, Strasbourg allowed 1.93 xG per game
- Shots: Paris Saint Germain averaged 9.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Strasbourg 5 per game
Risks
- Rest days: Paris Saint Germain with 3 days since their last match
- League: Paris Saint Germain won 3 of 6 games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Strasbourg23%
Draw25%
Paris Saint Germain53%
Double chance
Strasbourg or draw47%
Paris Saint Germain or draw77%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Strasbourg: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Troyes: 3 goals (85', 88', 90+2')
- Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 22)
- Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 21 P. Diop
- 80 G. Yassine
- 10 G. Reyna
- 19 F. Uri Baldé
- 40 C. Harder
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 L. Digne
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 9 F. Torres García
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitutes
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 43 Y. Becker
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 35 Y. Diémé
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 14 D. Doue
- 25 N. Mendes
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 22 M. Godts
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