Match report →
Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paris Saint Germain
2.54
Total xG
3.57
Olympique Lyonnais
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris Saint Germain | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.76x league average) | +1.33 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Marquinhos not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ousmane Dembélé not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pavel Sulc not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Paris Saint Germain won their last 5 matches, Olympique Lyonnais 3
- Shots on target: Paris Saint Germain with 9.8 shots on target per match in recent games, Olympique Lyonnais with 4.8
- Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against Olympique Lyonnais
Risks
- Squad: Paris Saint Germain are missing players who scored 5 of the team's 14 league goals this season (36%)
- Defense: Olympique Lyonnais conceded 0.67 goals per match away in the league this season in 3 matches
All probabilities
Result
Paris Saint Germain69%
Draw19%
Olympique Lyonnais13%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw88%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw31%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.54 : 1.04, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
4:1
5%
2:2
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Paris Saint Germain: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 9 F. Torres García
- 14 D. Doue
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 23 T. Morton
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 18 K. Merah
- 24 J. Duranville
Substitutes
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 12 L. Digne
- 22 M. Godts
- 42 D. Boly
- 85 N. Kamara
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 40 R. Descamps
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 44 A. Hamdani
- 45 R. Himbert
- 26 K. Boudache
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →