Match report →
Brest – Nice1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Brest
1.59
Total xG
2.81
Nice
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brest | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Brest average 2.33 goals per home game in the league this season, Nice concede 2 per away game
- Attack: Brest average 1.86 goals per game in the league this season, Nice 0.86 goals per game
Risks
- Squad: Brest without R. Le Guen, who was in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Nice won 2 of the 4 meetings against Brest, with 1 win for Brest
All probabilities
Result
Brest45%
Draw28%
Nice28%
Double chance
Brest or draw72%
Nice or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.22, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Brest: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Brest: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 7 games)
- Brest: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Brest 4-2-3-1 · Nice 3-4-2-1
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 29 L. Tousart
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 17 M. Baldé
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 36 A. Seidu
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 92 J. Clauss
- 28 A. Witsel
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Substitutes
- 11 N. Edjouma
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 6 M. Diambou
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 32 M. Lainé
- 39 D. N´Guessan
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 21 I. Jansson
- 10 S. Diop
- 8 M. Sanson
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 41 D. Morana
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