Match report →
Angers SCO – Lorient0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Angers SCO
1.19
Total xG
2.65
Lorient
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Angers SCO | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Panos Katseris not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Lorient sits 8th in the league this season with 11 points, while Angers SCO is 15th with 7 points
- Form: Lorient won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Angers SCO suffered 3 defeats over the same period
- Home/Away: Angers SCO concedes 2.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lorient 0.67 goals per game away
Risks
- Away: Lorient scores 0.67 goals per game away in the league this season, Angers SCO 1.25 goals per game at home
- Defense: Lorient allowed 1.25 xG per game in 7 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.86 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Angers SCO29%
Draw29%
Lorient42%
Double chance
Angers SCO or draw58%
Lorient or draw71%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.46, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lorient: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 7 total)
- Lorient: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Angers SCO 5-3-2 · Lorient 3-4-2-1
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 10 M. Sbai
- 9 P. Peter
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 95 S. Toure
- 20 D. Sylla
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 17 J. Makengo
- 19 S. Faye
- 18 I. Baldé
Substitutes
- 11 D. Harouna
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 16 M. Zinga
- 93 H. Belkebla
- 6 L. Mouton
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 42 M. Koné
- 2 A. Georgen
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