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Olympique Marseille – Le Havre4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Marseille
1.98
Total xG
3.04
Le Havre
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Marseille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 10, 8 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 18, 8 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| Angel Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Olympique Marseille scores 2.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, Le Havre concedes 1.67 away per game
- Head-to-head: Olympique Marseille has won all 4 previous meetings against Le Havre since 2025
- Table: Olympique Marseille sits 10th with 9 points, Le Havre is 18th with 2 points from 7 matches
Risks
- Schedule: Olympique Marseille with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Olympique Marseille lost 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Marseille57%
Draw24%
Le Havre18%
Double chance
Olympique Marseille or draw82%
Le Havre or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.98 : 1.06, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Le Havre: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games
- Le Havre: opponent scores first in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 10 games. Against Angers SCO: 2 goals (83', 85')
- Olympique Marseille: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 10 games)
Lineups
Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1 · Le Havre 5-3-2
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 6 T. Nadi
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Le Havre
- 93 G. Gallon
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 15 A. Seko
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 5 A. Touba
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 38 R. Fofana
- 25 M. Samatta
Substitutes
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 7 A. Gomes
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 16 A. Bodart
- 9 J. Maja
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 23 V. Sasso
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 33 Hakim Dongopandji
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