Match report →
Auxerre – Le Mans1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Auxerre
1.56
Total xG
2.84
Le Mans
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Auxerre has 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Le Mans has 1 win
- Table: Auxerre is 13th in the league with 9 points, Le Mans is 16th with 6 points
Risks
- Defence: Auxerre is conceding 2.43 goals per game in the league this season (17 goals in 7 matches)
All probabilities
Result
Auxerre43%
Draw28%
Le Mans30%
Double chance
Auxerre or draw70%
Le Mans or draw57%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.27, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Auxerre: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Le Mans: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
- Auxerre: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Auxerre 3-4-2-1 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Auxerre
- 1 P. Nardi
- 15 C. Makosso
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 21 R. Faivre
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 17 S. Yohou
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 8 A. Lauray
- 18 L. Buadés
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 22 L. Calodat
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 13 H. Diallo
Substitutes
- 35 E. Legros
- 20 S. Diomande
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 23 M. Diop
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 47 Y. Khoudda
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 26 R. Bamba
- 25 D. Guèye
- 15 N. Boissé
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 10 J. Vercruysse
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →