Match report →
Monaco – LOSC Lille1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
1.57
Total xG
2.70
LOSC Lille
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.45 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Edan Diop on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matthis Abline on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dilane Bakwa on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 47% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Monaco with 3 wins in the last 5 matches, LOSC Lille with 1
- Home form: Monaco scores 2 goals per match at home in the league this season
Risks
- Rest days: Monaco with 3 days since the last match
- Head-to-head: LOSC Lille won 3 of the 4 meetings, Monaco none
All probabilities
Result
Monaco46%
Draw28%
LOSC Lille26%
Double chance
Monaco or draw74%
LOSC Lille or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 1.12, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Monaco with Mamadou Coulibaly starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (12/9 games, last 30)
Lineups
Monaco 4-2-3-1 · LOSC Lille 4-3-3
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 4 J. Teze
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 31 A. Fati
- 29 P. Brunner
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 35 S. Diaoune
Substitutes
- 11 M. Abline
- 22 M. Karim
- 18 T. Minamino
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 9 F. Balogun
- 49 I. Touré
- 37 E. Diop
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 38 M. Goffi
- 28 G. Perrin
- 33 D. Matah
- 12 O. Gill
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