Match report →
Toulouse – Troyes0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Toulouse
2.11
Total xG
3.14
Troyes
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toulouse | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Troyes lost their last 5 matches, while Toulouse recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
- Table: Toulouse is 12th in the league with 9 points, while Troyes sits 17th with 4 points
- Defence: Troyes has conceded 2.29 goals per match and scored 0.71 per match in the league this season
Risks
- Home form: Toulouse has scored 1 goal per match and conceded 1.67 per match in 3 home league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Toulouse61%
Draw23%
Troyes16%
Double chance
Toulouse or draw84%
Troyes or draw39%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.11 : 1.03, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toulouse: 58% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 12)
- Toulouse: 92% of all goals in the second half (11 of 12, last 7 games)
Lineups
Toulouse 4-4-2 · Troyes 4-3-3
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 22 R. Messali
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 15 A. Dønnum
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 14 N. Sigur
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
- 20 C. Tengstedt
Troyes
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 17 A. Mille
- 29 K. Dermane
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 20 R. Ripart
- 23 T. NKada
Substitutes
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 6 A. Vossah
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 18 M. Amougou
- 37 I. Azizi
- 94 I. Diallo
- 1 T. Collin
- 11 I. Gomis
- 9 J. Le Douaron
- 22 H. Picard
- 7 K. Diawara
- 33 P. Beach
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 36 I. Soukouna
- 34 L. Simakha
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