Match report →
Lens – Paris2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lens
1.97
Total xG
3.26
Paris
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lens | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.51 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Lens scores 2.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, Paris scores 1 goal per game away
- Attack: Lens scores 2 goals per game in the league this season, the model expects 1.97 to 1.29 goals
Risks
- Table: Paris is 3rd in the league after 7 games with 14 points, Lens is 9th with 10 points
- Form: Paris won 3 of their last 5 games, Lens suffered 3 defeats in that period
- Rest days: Lens has 3 days since their last game, Paris has 6 days
All probabilities
Result
Lens52%
Draw24%
Paris24%
Double chance
Lens or draw76%
Paris or draw48%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.97 : 1.29, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Paris 4-2-3-1
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 20 J. Todibo
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 21 A. Haidara
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 29 F. Ivanović
Paris
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 17 A. Camara
- 5 M. Mbow
- 42 D. Coppola
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Substitutes
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 32 K. Antonio
- 9 T. Hazard
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 38 M.Soares
- 23 R. Matondo
- 31 S. Chergui
- 1 K. Trapp
- 14 H. Traoré
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 27 M. Simon
- 25 Y. Koré
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 3 E. Mbemba Nlandu
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →