Match report →
Rennes – Strasbourg3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rennes
1.93
Total xG
3.18
Strasbourg
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Estéban Lepaul not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adrien Thomasson on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bryan Reynolds on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Sebastian Nanasi not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jacobo Ortega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Rennes averages 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, Strasbourg concedes 2.5 away
- Table: Rennes is 7th in the league with 13 points from 7 matches, Strasbourg is 14th with 7 points from 7 matches
Risks
- Personnel: E. Lepaul is absent, having scored 7 of the 14 league goals by Rennes players this season (50%)
- Rest period: Rennes with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Rennes52%
Draw25%
Strasbourg23%
Double chance
Rennes or draw77%
Strasbourg or draw48%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.93 : 1.25, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Strasbourg: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- Strasbourg: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Troyes: 3 goals (85', 88', 90+2')
- Strasbourg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 9 games (56%)
- Strasbourg: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Rennes 5-3-2 · Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 18 M. Nagida
- 17 S. Szymański
- 21 V. Rongier
- 45 M. Camara
- 22 B. Dia
- 11 M. Al Tamari
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 21 P. Diop
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 80 G. Yassine
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 10 G. Reyna
- 40 C. Harder
Substitutes
- 10 L. Blas
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 6 D. Cisse
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 20 M. Godo
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 26 O. Kellyman
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 43 Y. Becker
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 35 Y. Diémé
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