Match report →
Strasbourg – Auxerre5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Strasbourg
1.57
Total xG
2.80
Auxerre
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Diogo Sousa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Auxerre is conceding 3.25 goals per game away in the league this season in 4 matches
- Head-to-head: Strasbourg has 3 wins in 4 meetings against Auxerre with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Auxerre has 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Strasbourg is winless (1 draw, 4 losses)
- Table: Auxerre is 12th in the league with 10 points from 8 matches, Strasbourg is 16th with 7 points
All probabilities
Result
Strasbourg44%
Draw28%
Auxerre28%
Double chance
Strasbourg or draw72%
Auxerre or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 1.23, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Strasbourg: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 9 games. Against Troyes: 3 goals (85', 88', 90+2')
- Strasbourg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Auxerre: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Auxerre: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Strasbourg: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
- Strasbourg: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Strasbourg 4-3-3 · Auxerre 3-4-2-1
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 6 I. Doukoure
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 40 C. Harder
- 20 M. Godo
Auxerre
- 1 P. Nardi
- 15 C. Makosso
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 5 K. Danois
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 21 R. Faivre
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
Substitutes
- 11 S. Nanasi
- 21 P. Diop
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 26 O. Kellyman
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 16 G. Antwi
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 13 T. Siwe
- 20 S. Diomande
- 29 M. Senaya
- 23 M. Diop
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 47 Y. Khoudda
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →