Match report →
Paris – Monaco3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Paris
1.38
Total xG
2.87
Monaco
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.90 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Luca Koleosho not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| J. Teze on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Paris is 6th in the league this season with 14 points from 8 games, Monaco is 4th with 15 points from 8 games
- Shots on target: Paris averages 4.8 shots on target per game in recent matches, Monaco 5 per game
- Attack: Paris scores 1.62 goals per game in the league this season, Monaco 1.38 goals per game
Risks
- Defense: Monaco concedes 0.75 goals per game away in the league this season
- Form: Monaco lost 1 of 8 games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Paris34%
Draw28%
Monaco38%
Double chance
Paris or draw62%
Monaco or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.38 : 1.48, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Monaco: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Paris 4-2-3-1 · Monaco 4-2-3-1
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 14 H. Traoré
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 27 M. Simon
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 37 E. Diop
- 10 A. Golovin
- 11 M. Abline
- 29 P. Brunner
Substitutes
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 17 A. Camara
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 3 E. Mbemba Nlandu
- 18 T. Minamino
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 9 F. Balogun
- 19 P. Cabral
- 49 I. Touré
- 7 M. Detourbet
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →