Match report →
Troyes – Le Mans2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Troyes
1.49
Total xG
2.71
Le Mans
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Troyes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +1.02 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defence: Troyes concedes 2.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Le Mans 2 per game away
- Attack: Le Mans scores 1.38 goals per game in the league this season, the model expects 1.49 goals for Troyes
Risks
- Form: Troyes is winless in their last 5 matches with 1 draw and 4 losses, Le Mans recorded 1 win
- Table: Le Mans sits 15th with 7 points from 8 games, Troyes is 17th with 5 points
All probabilities
Result
Troyes42%
Draw29%
Le Mans30%
Double chance
Troyes or draw70%
Le Mans or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.22, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Le Mans: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Le Mans: 45% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 11)
- Le Mans: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Troyes 4-3-3 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Troyes
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 17 A. Mille
- 29 K. Dermane
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 20 R. Ripart
- 23 T. NKada
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 15 N. Boissé
- 17 S. Yohou
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 8 A. Lauray
- 18 L. Buadés
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 22 L. Calodat
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 13 H. Diallo
Substitutes
- 11 I. Gomis
- 9 J. Le Douaron
- 22 H. Picard
- 14 I. Boura
- 7 K. Diawara
- 33 P. Beach
- 44 Y. Titi
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 36 I. Soukouna
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 5 H. Voyer
- 26 R. Bamba
- 25 D. Guèye
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 10 J. Vercruysse
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