Premier League
Fulham - Tottenham Hotspur
03/01/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.1
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Fulham
Tottenham Hotspur
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
26%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Contrasting form: Fulham's two consecutive wins are in stark contrast to Tottenham's three straight losses, giving the home side a psychological advantage
- Home strength and H2H dominance: Fulham is very stable defensively at home (only 1.00 goals conceded/game) and has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
- Clear mathematical prediction: The prediction model sees Fulham as the winner with a 46% probability, compared to just 28% for Tottenham
Risk Factors
- Tottenham's weakened squad: Key players like Cristian Romero and Mohammed Kudus are missing, leaving only about 68% of this season's goal contributions available on the pitch
- Recent defensive frailties: Both teams have shown defensive issues lately, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game in their recent matches, which is above their season average
Overview
Fulham (10th place, 37 points) host Tottenham Hotspur (16th place, 29 points) at Craven Cottage
Premier League match on March 1, 2026, 2:00 PM
Fulham aims to solidify a mid-table position, while Spurs urgently need points to fight relegation
Form
Fulham's form: LLLWW
After three consecutive losses, Fulham has won their last two matches
From the last 5 games, the team has 2 wins and 3 losses
Tottenham's form: WDLLL
Spurs are in a form crisis with three consecutive defeats
Their record from the last 5 matches is 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Both teams are almost identical offensively, with a season average of 1.41 goals per game for Fulham and 1.37 for Tottenham
Defensively, the overall stats are also the same with 1.52 goals conceded per game
A key difference is Fulham's home strength: they concede only 1.00 goals per game at Craven Cottage
The last 5 games at Craven Cottage have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game and both teams scoring in every match
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Fulham has a clearly positive record
Fulham won 3 times, with 1 draw and 1 loss
The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Fulham
Fulham won the last meeting 2-1
Key Players
Harry Wilson has been directly involved in 13 goals this season (8 goals, 5 assists)
RaĂșl JimĂ©nez is also a key scorer for Fulham with 8 goals
Emile Smith Rowe has contributed 3 goals so far this season
For Tottenham, defender Micky van de Ven is surprisingly prolific with 4 goals
Xavi Simons has stood out as a creative force with 4 assists
Dominic Solanke has already scored 2 goals in his few appearances and has shown good recent form
Goalkeepers
In goal for Fulham is Bernd Leno, who has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Tottenham's goalkeeper is Guglielmo Vicario, who has achieved 7 clean sheets so far
Both goalkeepers have played 27 matches this season
Influences
Fulham benefits from a clear home advantage, especially in defense (only 1.00 goals conceded/game at home)
Craven Cottage has recently been a venue for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last 5 home games
In all of these 5 games, both teams scored and there were always over 2.5 goals