Match report →
Le Havre – Paris Saint Germain1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Le Havre
1.07
Total xG
3.19
Paris Saint Germain
2.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.7x league average) | +1.23 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap) | −0.36 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Ally Samatta on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Fabián Ruiz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Désiré Doué on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Vitinha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Paris Saint Germain ranks 1st in Ligue 1 with 17 points, Le Havre 18th with 2 points
- Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain won all 4 previous meetings against Le Havre
- Home/Away: Paris Saint Germain scores 2 goals per game away in the league, Le Havre 0.5 per game at home
Risks
- Defense: Paris Saint Germain allowed 1.92 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.2 goals per game
- Attack: Le Havre averaged 2.09 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Le Havre17%
Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain60%
Double chance
Le Havre or draw40%
Paris Saint Germain or draw83%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.07 : 2.13, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
9%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Le Havre: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Le Havre: opponent scores first in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Le Havre: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Le Havre: 62% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 8)
Lineups
Le Havre 3-4-2-1 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Le Havre
- 16 A. Bodart
- 15 A. Seko
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 5 A. Touba
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 38 R. Fofana
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 9 J. Maja
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 L. Digne
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 9 F. Torres García
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 22 M. Godts
Substitutes
- 93 G. Gallon
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 25 M. Samatta
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 23 V. Sasso
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 33 Hakim Dongopandji
- 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 14 D. Doue
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 42 D. Boly
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