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Olympique Lyonnais – Angers SCO2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Lyonnais
2.07
Total xG
2.96
Angers SCO
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Lyonnais | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +1.26 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (1.7 vs 1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Amine El Ouazzani not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Olympique Lyonnais scores 2.5 goals per game at home, Angers SCO concedes 1.88 per game in the league
- Table: Olympique Lyonnais ranks 5th with 14 points from 8 games, Angers SCO is 14th with 8 points from 8 games
- Head-to-head: Olympique Lyonnais won 3 of the 4 meetings against Angers SCO, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Olympique Lyonnais suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 games with 2 wins
- Squad: Olympique Lyonnais without T. Morton, who started in 3 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Lyonnais63%
Draw23%
Angers SCO14%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw86%
Angers SCO or draw37%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.07 : 0.90, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
1:1
11%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
Lineups
Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3 · Angers SCO 5-4-1
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 24 J. Duranville
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 11 K. Nakamura
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 93 H. Belkebla
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 10 M. Sbai
- 9 P. Peter
Substitutes
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 18 K. Merah
- 32 A. Gomes Rodriguez
- 40 R. Descamps
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 26 K. Boudache
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 11 D. Harouna
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 16 M. Zinga
- 6 L. Mouton
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 34 M. Gernigon
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