Match report →
Lorient – Brest0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lorient
1.41
Total xG
2.56
Brest
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lorient | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 25% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Lorient recorded 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Brest lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Table: Lorient are 10th in the league this season with 12 points from 8 games, Brest are 14th with 9 points
- Defense: Lorient conceded 0.75 goals per game in the league this season, Brest 1.5 per game
Risks
- Attack: Brest scored 1.75 goals per game in the league this season, Lorient 0.88 per game
All probabilities
Result
Lorient41%
Draw30%
Brest29%
Double chance
Lorient or draw71%
Brest or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.41 : 1.15, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Lorient: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Lorient: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Brest: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Brest: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Brest: 71% of all goals in the first half (10 of 14, last 8 games)
Lineups
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Brest 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 95 S. Toure
- 20 D. Sylla
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 17 J. Makengo
- 19 S. Faye
- 18 I. Baldé
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 29 L. Tousart
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 17 M. Baldé
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Substitutes
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 2 A. Georgen
- 11 N. Edjouma
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 6 M. Diambou
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 10 G. Versini
- 39 D. N´Guessan
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